Global Trends and Middle Class Pressure

Imagine you can buy your groceries at your local grocery store called “Pricey” and at another place that is further away on the other side of the city called “Cheapish.” You have been going to your local Pricey store because, on average, the stuff you buy there has been better quality and because it is more trouble to go to the lower-price place, as it is more distance and a hassle.

You are also simply in the habit of going to the local high-price place. You know the people, you know how it works, you find yourself around easily, and it is generally quite practical. Besides, Cheapish is not stable and is not reliable, not as well organized, and even had riots and crime around the parking lot a few times. This is global production and labor between 1950 and 1990: industrialized countries had an edge.

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The Bitcoin Bubble II: Pricing BTC

In my post “The Bitcoin Bubble” I explain the logic behind pricing btc relative to the usd. That post created quite a stir, with some people sending me mails to either tell me I’m crazy OR to tell me “it all makes sense” even if the 100k usd per btc seems ridiculous (even to me!).

Please take the time to read in full that post, as it is the back bone and starting point for this one and provides the necessary discussion and caveats. Btc could be “as good as gold” which could bring it to as much as half a million OR, even without “gold status”, it could move quite easily to close to 100k usd… read on for details…

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The Bitcoin Bubble

There is one overriding issue with the Bitcoin and crypto subject: emotions. People are either “pro crypto”, saying it will change the world, that it is a revolutionary technology that changes everything and adds massive value to society, that it frees us from the excessive power of banks and on and on. Then you have the “anti crypto” group, saying it is a fraud, a lie, a bubble without reason, that it has no value, that it is dangerous due to lack of regulation, and on and on.

Everybody chill.

Lets take a step back and look at it from a purely monetary angle, with cold logic and deductive reasoning, using data and reasonable assumptions, and see what we get.

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